INSIDER TRADING? Trump's Ceasefire Comment Triggers Suspicious SPX Options Spike
July 4, 2025
Last weekend, Trump made a statement about a ceasefire in the region and a move towards peace involving Iran.
His previous statement had a significant impact on the markets, and we observed some unusual trading activity that looked very much like insider trading. Therefore, we decided to analyze SPX market data for those days and investigate whether there was any suspicious activity.
Analysis of SPX Options Activity
We chose to analyze SPX for unusual options activity.
Below are the charts showing options trading volume for the 20th and 23rd. Only call options were considered – 0DTE – and we selected far-out strikes differing by more than 70 points.
The charts show spikes of isolated options activity on the 20th – two events – and on the 23rd – four consecutive events.
Observations
When looking at these anomalies in the context of the past six months, the total volume on Friday the 20th stands out only slightly from the overall picture, while the volume on the 23rd doesn't stand out at all.
Meanwhile, the value of the maximum single trade volume on the 20th stands out sharply compared to the broader context, while the 23rd again does not stand out.
Finally, if we compare the average trade metrics within each day, we see they do not differ meaningfully from the general picture.
Conclusion
Unusual options activity was observed on Friday the 20th and Monday the 23rd. On Monday, this activity was not significantly different from the background, while on Friday there were substantial options bets placed before Mr. Trump's speech.
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